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UK Insights

Conservatives early lead in UK polling

Michelle Harrison

CEO Kantar Public

GE 25.04.2017 / 15:00

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More than half of Labour voters think the party is “the best of a bad bunch” rather than “a good choice for Britain”.

The majority of likely Labour voters believe the Labour party is the “best of a bad bunch”, rather than “a good choice for Britain” (57% vs 43%). This is in stark contrast to likely Conservative voters for whom the Conservative party is more likely to be “a good choice for Britain” (56% vs 44% “best of a bad bunch”).

Poll _2

In Kantar Public’s first poll since the start of the 2017 General Election campaign the Conservatives are ahead with 46% of likely voters planning to vote for them on June 8th. Labour lags far behind on 24% with the Liberal Democrats (11%) slightly ahead of UKIP (8%).

Poll _1

In light of the Conservatives’ strong showing in the early polls of the campaign, the first week has seen much talk of tactical voting.  In order to tease out the potential for tactical voting Kantar deployed its gameplay methodology in which voters are given more than one vote. How would they use these secondary votes? In this scenario, nearly two-thirds (64%) of voters would consider allocating their 2nd vote to a different party, implying there is a potential appetite for tactical voting. This is less likely among Conservative voters (57%) than Labour and Liberal Democrat voters (65% and 83% respectively).

Commenting Luke Taylor, Head of Social and Political Attitudes at Kantar Public UK said: “The Conservative Party is currently in a very strong position. Among likely voters they are currently backed by three-fifths of those that voted Leave in the EU referendum and they have also picked up support from two-fifths of those that voted for UKIP in the last General Election. However, it should also be noted that 11% of likely voters remain undecided so there is still time for Labour, the Liberal Democrats and others to increase their share of the vote.”

Source : Kantar Public

Editor's Notes

Download the survey data and further details on the methodological approach here.

1,196 interviews were conducted online among adults living in Great Britain between 20th April and 24th April 2017. Interviews were conducted using the Kantar TNS Omnibus, which uses the Lightspeed access panel as its sample source.

The data was weighted to match population totals for age, gender, working status, 2015 General Election voting patterns, 2016 EU referendum voting patterns, education, region, and likelihood to vote in the next General Election. Our voting intention figures have been adjusted to take into account likely turnout patterns at the General Election.

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