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UK Insights

Kantar Public Follows Successful Brexit Forecast with a Strong Performance in GE2017

Luke Taylor

Head of Social and Political Attitudes

GE 09.06.2017 / 14:00

UK houses of parliament

Insights around GE2017

Kantar Public’s final poll estimated the 2017 general election vote share in Great Britain as 43% for the Conservatives, 38% for Labour, 7% for the Liberal Democrats, 4% for both UKIP and the SNP plus 2% for the Green party.

With 631/632 seats in Great Britain declared, the actual vote shares are 44% for the Conservatives, 41% for Labour, 8% for the Liberal Democrats, 3% for the SNP and 2% for both UKIP and the Green party. Our average polling error per party was only 1.2 percentage points and the Conservative share was almost exactly as predicted.

This makes the Kantar Public poll one of the most accurate in this election, and follows a strong performance in the 2016 EU referendum when the Kantar Public poll was one of only two to correctly call the outcome. More recently, Kantar Public produced very precise forecasts for the last General elections in the Netherlands, in Korea and in France, illustrating the continued importance of polling as a valuable insight in to the pulse of public opinion.

Throughout, we have relied on a relatively assumption-free approach which allowed for fluctuation in the voter profile but utilised empirically-grounded models where appropriate. That approach served us well in the referendum and served us well in this election.

The rapid growth in Labour’s share of the voting intentions was the stand out phenomenon in this campaign and proved challenging to pollsters.  In our polls, Labour started with a 22 point deficit to the Conservatives but ended with only a 5 point deficit.  The true deficit was even smaller: 2-3 percentage points.

Our analysis indicates that Labour attracted a fairly youthful coalition, scoring particularly well with those who had not voted in 2015 or had voted Green.  This was supplemented with an under-publicised chunk of those who had voted UKIP in 2015.  Although this appeared to be a rather ‘soft’ coalition it held together on Election Day and delivered a genuine shock for those who assumed that polls with small Conservative leads – like ours – must be wrong.

You can find more information on Kantar Public’s methodologies and capabilities at http://www.kantar.com/public/.

Source : Kantar Public

Editor's Notes

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