After a period of volatility in attitudes towards independence
following the SNP's success in the 2011 Scottish parliamentary
election, opinion has stabilised in recent months, with opposition
consistently recorded at around the 50% level and support some 20%
lower. With just over 1 in 4 in favour and just under 1 in 4
The main effect of the Edinburgh Agreement between Cameron and
Salmond in October was an increase in the undecideds and slight
decline in support from its peak of 53%, rather than any more
positive influence on opinion.
Similarly, the recent debate around EU membership, following
independence, has had no adverse effect on levels of support, which
might suggest that these current levels of opposition and support
are based much more on principle than the detail. They are a
reflection of the heart rather than the head at this stage. While
this gives the 'Yes' campaign a sizeable base on which to build and
a significant 24% undecided to attempt to win over, the gap of 20%
remains large and, if the opposition is consolidating at around
48%, the challenge is considerable.
It is worth noting that the introduction of 16-17s to the sample
has no effect on overall opinion, such is the low level of their
representation within the electorate as a whole.
Click on the PDF below to download the raw poll results from
Kantar company, TNS BMRB.
Source : TNS