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UK Insights

Scottish Independence Poll

Public Opinion // Politics 14.01.2013

Tom Costley

Head of TNS Scotland

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TNS BMRB poll on independence in Scotland, January 2013

After a period of volatility in attitudes towards independence following the SNP's success in the 2011 Scottish parliamentary election, opinion has stabilised in recent months, with opposition consistently recorded at around the 50% level and support some 20% lower.  With just over 1 in 4 in favour and just under 1 in 4 undecided.

The main effect of the Edinburgh Agreement between Cameron and Salmond in October was an increase in the undecideds and slight decline in support from its peak of 53%, rather than any more positive influence on opinion.

Similarly, the recent debate around EU membership, following independence, has had no adverse effect on levels of support, which might suggest that these current levels of opposition and support are based much more on principle than the detail. They are a reflection of the heart rather than the head at this stage. While this gives the 'Yes' campaign a sizeable base on which to build and a significant 24% undecided to attempt to win over, the gap of 20% remains large and, if the opposition is consolidating at around 48%, the challenge is considerable.

It is worth noting that the introduction of 16-17s to the sample has no effect on overall opinion, such is the low level of their representation within the electorate as a whole.

Click on the PDF below to download the raw poll results from Kantar company, TNS BMRB.

Source : TNS

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