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UK Insights

Undecideds move to vote leave because of immigration and the NHS

Luke Taylor

Head of Social and Political Attitudes

Politics 27.06.2016 / 11:40

Analysis into how people intended to vote in the EU referendum vs. how they actually voted

Kantar's TNS gathered an EU referendum day panel of 200 voters from across the UK, to try to understand the sentiment of how people are voting and why. By comparing responses before polling day to those given on the day, we can see evidence of people changing their minds in terms of how they intended to vote vs. how they actually voted, and what led to them changing their minds.

We have seen four of the major campaign messages come through and influence last minute decision making. Those who have moved from undecided to Remain have done so primarily because of fear of the impact of economy of an exit; and the uncertainty/risk of a future outside of the EU, both making the status quo more appealing.

Dominating the decision to move from Undecided to vote Leave are the major campaign issues of both immigration and the NHS.

These four key themes have driven around half of these late decisions, but friends, family and community have also had an impact, as have a whole range of other issues from easy travel around the EU through to celebrity endorsement.

To explore our analysis in more detail, please watch our video vox pops by clicking on the Vimeo video above.

Source : Kantar TNS

Editor's Notes

Kantar’s TNS conducted qualitative research with an EU referendum day panel of 200 voters from across the UK. The panel consists of people who intend to vote in the election. Two stages of research were undertaken, with panellists being asked to submit video vox pops at both stages:

1. In the days leading up to the referendum the panel was asked how they intended to vote and why

2. On Thursday 23rd June, polling day, the panel were asked how they voted and why. So far 154 panellists have told us how they voted today.

This study provides insight in to the sentiment of how people are voting and why, and, by comparing responses before election day to those given on the day, will provide evidence of people changing their minds in terms of how they intended to vote vs. how they actually voted, and what led to them changing their minds.

To interview Luke Taylor, or for more information, please contact us.

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