In a poll by Kantar's TNS, a majority of people in Scotland continue to support the UK remaining in the EU. When asked how they intend to vote in the referendum on 23rd June, half (51%) of adults aged 18+ in Scotland said they will vote to remain (+3), one in five (21%) would vote to leave (no change) and 29% don’t know (-2).
If those who don’t know are removed, the survey suggests 71% would vote to remain and 29% would vote to leave.
Seven in ten (71%) claimed that they are ‘certain to vote’ in the referendum, down from 75% last month. Among those who say they are certain to vote, more than half (53%) say they would vote to remain, almost a quarter (24%) would vote to leave and 23% are undecided.
The level of support for the EU in Scotland has shown little change over the last few months and it looks likely that Scotland will vote to remain on 23rd June. There is still the potential for a high turnout, suggesting the Scottish public can see the importance of this decision. Both sides will be keen to get as many people as possible to cast their vote on the day. Given how close the race is looking across the UK, every vote will count.
The survey also explored a scenario where Scotland votes to remain in the EU, but the UK as a whole votes to leave. Respondents were therefore also asked, in those circumstances, how they would vote in a new referendum on Scottish independence: 38% said they would back a Yes vote, 48% said they would vote No, and 14% don’t know.
Removing those who say they don’t know, 44% would vote Yes and 56% would vote No – almost identical to the 2014 Independence referendum result.
Respondents were also asked whether they thought there should be a new Independence referendum in these circumstances - 43% backed a new referendum, 46% did not and 10% didn’t know. Demand for another referendum was essentially split according to people’s stance on Independence - the highest support for a new referendum was among Yes voters, of whom 87% would back such a move, compared to only 13% of those who would vote No.
The SNP has said that a UK vote to leave the EU could trigger a new referendum on Independence. However, on the basis of this latest poll it would appear that appetite for such a move is mostly limited to those who back Independence rather than being shared by the public as a whole. There is also little evidence that opinion towards Independence has shifted significantly since September 2014, with support for a Yes vote, even in these circumstances, well below the 60% level that First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has indicated she would be looking for before calling another vote.
Source : Kantar, Kantar TNS