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UK Insights

Despite being trusted most on the NHS Labour remain behind in the polls

Luke Taylor

Head of Social and Political Attitudes

GE 31.05.2017 / 15:30

Houses of Parliament

A Kantar Public view on the 2017 General Election

The latest Kantar Public poll has the Conservative party on 43% (+1) ahead of Labour on 33% (-1), the Lib Dems on 11% (+2) and UKIP on 4% (nc).

Poll _31May1

In this poll, we asked the public which issues are most important to them when deciding who to vote for, and then about which party they trust the most on each of the same issues.

The most important issues driving voter choice are the NHS (23% selected this as their top issue) and negotiating Britain’s exit from the EU (21%), followed by national security (14%), immigration (12%) and the economy (11%).  Results vary markedly depending on political affiliation; the NHS is by far the most important issue for Labour supporters (42%), whereas the dominant issue for Conservative supporters is negotiating Britain’s exit from the EU (39%).

The Labour party is the most trusted on the NHS (34% compared with 21% for the Conservative party). However, the Conservatives’ strong poll lead is likely due to being trusted more than Labour on all four of the next most important issues. The Conservatives are trusted the most on negotiating Brexit (36% compared with 16% for Labour), national security (34% compared with 16%), immigration (25% and 19%) and the economy (33% and 23%).

The strong stance which the Conservatives are showing on Brexit continues to pay dividends. They currently have a very strong lead among likely voters that voted “Leave” in the EU referendum (53% compared with 27% for Labour). As we would expect, they have attracted substantial support from former UKIP voters; almost half (46%) of likely voters that supported UKIP in 2015 have now switched to the Conservatives.

Despite the Liberal Democrats stressing their pro-EU stance, this appears to be having limited effect. Only 12% of likely voters that voted “Remain” in the EU referendum currently plan to vote for the Lib Dems, compared with 35% for the Conservatives and 41% for Labour.

Poll _31May2

The Labour party remains the most active on Facebook (with 56 posts in the last week) ahead of the Lib Dems (20 posts) and the Conservatives (19 posts). However, Facebook users are becoming more engaged with the content posted by the Conservative party; over the last week their posts have been shared 69,984 times – up from 17,542 the previous week – although this still lags behind Labour (97,841). On Twitter @Conservatives and @UKLabour have shown a similar level of activity (90 and 86 original tweets respectively). @UKLabour continue to have the most engaged Twitter followers with 38,119 retweets over this period, substantially more than @Conservatives (19,677) and @LibDems (6,524). When it comes to party leaders, Jeremy Corbyn remains the most active on social media and his posts have also received the most retweets on Twitter and the most Likes, Comments and Shares on Facebook.

Source : Kantar Public


Editor's Notes

SURVEY

Download the survey data and further details on the methodological approach here.

1,199 interviews were conducted online among adults living in Great Britain between the 25th and 30th May 2017. Interviews were conducted using the Kantar TNS Omnibus, which uses the Lightspeed access panel as its sample source.

The data was weighted to match population totals for age, gender, working status, 2015 General Election voting patterns, 2016 EU referendum voting patterns, education, region, and likelihood to vote in the next General Election. Our voting intention figures have been adjusted to take into account likely turnout patterns at the General Election

Since our previous poll, a change has been made to the questionnaire to capture postal voting. In addition, now that voter registration has closed, those that indicate they are not registered (or who do not know whether they are registered) are not included in our final voting intentions. Finally, voting intention is also now imputed for those who have not stated a preference. Without this imputation stage the headline voting intention figures would have been Conservative (43%), Labour (34%), Lib Dems (9%) and UKIP (4%). Further details on these changes are included in the methodological note which prefaces the data tables.

SOCIAL MEDIA

Download the social media data and further details on the methodological approach here.

The Facebook analysis is based on the interactions which Facebook users have had with content posted on the official Facebook pages of the main political parties and their leaders between 24th April and 28th May 2017.

The Twitter analysis is based on the “buzz” generated by original tweets authored by the official Twitter accounts of the main political parties and their leaders between 24th April and 28th May 2017.

 

For more information, please contact us.

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