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UK Insights

Labour gains in polls from politically disengaged

Luke Taylor

Head of Social and Political Attitudes

GE 25.05.2017 / 15:00

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A Kantar Public view on the 2017 General Election

The latest Kantar Public poll was conducted after the Conservative manifesto launch but before the Manchester terrorist attack.

As of last weekend, the Labour party appeared to have benefited the most from the manifesto launches and from the controversy around social care. The Conservative party was down 5 points on 42% while Labour was up 5 points on 34%. The Lib Dems were on 9% (+1) and UKIP on 4% (-2).

It should be noted that Labour’s increased support in this poll predominantly comes from individuals who did not vote in the 2015 General Election but are expected to vote this time around. At the beginning of May these 2015 non-voters were fairly evenly split between the Conservatives and Labour. However, at the time the most recent poll was conducted this group had switched to strongly favouring the Labour party. The effect of this change is amplified by the fact that these 2015 non-voters are now more likely to say they will vote than was the case earlier in the campaign.  In on our latest poll these 2015 non-voters comprise 16% of likely voters in 2017; an increase of four percentage points compared with our previous poll.

This may be a high watermark for Labour as we suspect that 2015 non-voters – who are less politically engaged than others - will lose some enthusiasm both for voting and for choosing Labour if they do vote.

Source : Kantar Public

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Editor's Notes

SURVEY

Download the survey data and further details on the methodological approach here.

1,200 interviews were conducted online among adults living in Great Britain between the 18th and 22nd May 2017. Interviews were conducted using the Kantar TNS Omnibus, which uses the Lightspeed access panel as its sample source.

The data was weighted to match population totals for age, gender, working status, 2015 General Election voting patterns, 2016 EU referendum voting patterns, education, region, and likelihood to vote in the next General Election. Our voting intention figures have been adjusted to take into account likely turnout patterns at the General Election

Since our previous poll, we have made a change to our headline voting intention. If an individual is planning to vote Green or UKIP but lives in a constituency where a candidate from the party of their choice is not standing, their voting intention has been reallocated to their second preference. Without this change the headline voting intentions would have been Conservative (42%), Labour (34%), Lib Dems (9%) and UKIP (5%).

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