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UK Insights

Dramatic swing towards Yes

Tom Costley

Deputy Managing Director, Specialist Services

Politics 2014 09.09.2014 / 00:01

TNS UK Scottish independence infographic September 2014

Scottish independence referendum vote too close to call

Key Numbers

  • 39% No
  • 38% Yes
  • 23% Don't know

The Yes and No campaigns in the Scottish Independence referendum are running neck-and-neck after a dramatic swing towards Yes over the past month, according to a poll from Kantar's TNS.

The poll of 990 people in Scotland aged 16+ also found a surge in the number of those who say they are certain to vote, a strong move towards Yes among women and an increased likelihood to vote Yes among those under 55.

Among all adults aged 16+, 39% said they would vote No (down from 45% a month ago) and 38% backed a Yes vote (up from 32% a month ago). While there has been evidence to suggest that women were more reticent about voting Yes, this appears to be changing and the gender gap narrowing. 41% of women surveyed in this latest poll intend to vote No, but this figure was 49% a month ago, and the proportion of women who intend to vote Yes has increased from 27% to 35% (compared to the proportion of men who intend to vote Yes increasing from 38% to 41%).

Older people aged 55+ are now the only age group where No voters are in the majority - 49% say they intend to vote No compared to 31% voting Yes.  Amongst those aged under 55 years, the Yes vote has achieved a significant upturn in the last month - from being 8 percentage points behind the No vote, this position has been reversed and Yes now have a 9 percentage point advantage over the No vote.

Leaving to one side the questions about how people would vote, we also asked who they thought would win the referendum.  Interestingly, 45% of all voters said No would win and 31% backed Yes. Among No voters, 70% thought their side would win, while 56% of Yes voters thought that they would prevail.

Tom Costley, Head of TNS Scotland, said: "This poll reveals a remarkable shift in voting intentions, but the signs were evident in our last couple of polls which indicated a narrowing of the No lead, especially amongst those who told us that they were certain to vote. It is too close to call and both sides will now be energised to make the most of the last few days of the campaign and try and persuade the undecided voters of the merits of their respective campaigns."

Source : Kantar TNS

Editor's Notes

Journalists, download the infographic, to interview Tom Costley, please contact us.

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