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UK Insights

Conservatives hold slight lead in polls

Luke Taylor

Head of Social and Political Attitudes

Politics 10.07.2018 / 06:00

theresa-may

Research from Kantar Public shows that those who say they would turn out to vote are more likely to vote Conservative.

According to Kantar Public's most recent voting intentions poll, conducted before the recent Cabinet resignations, the Conservative party, led by Theresa May, hold a slender lead of two percentage points compared to The Labour party, led by Jeremy Corbyn (Conservative 40%, Labour 38%) among likely voters. The Liberal Democrats lead among the other parties on 9%, with SNP at 4%, UKIP at 3%, Green on 3%, and Others at 3%.

Among the general population at large, however, Labour actually hold a small lead over the Conservative party (39% vs 36%). At present, Conservative supporters are more engaged and more likely to say they would turn out if a new election was called (74% of those who voted Conservative in 2017 say they would definitely vote, vs 55% of those who voted Labour) - giving May's party the edge if an election is called.

Age remains the most important differentiator in voting intentions. Conservative supporters are also older and this group tends to turn out at a higher rate than the younger Labour supporters.

  • 82% of those over 65 say they are probably or definitely likely to vote if an election is called tomorrow. This compares to just 36% of under-25-year-olds.
  • 66% of likely voters aged 18-24 plan to vote for Labour.       
  • 57% of likely voters aged 65+ plan to vote for the Conservative party.

So if Labour manage to increase engagement/turnout among their younger supporters, it would be all to play for in a new election. 

Source : Kantar Public

Editor's Notes

Polling Methodology

The survey data and further details on the methodological approach can be found here.

1,086 interviews were conducted online among adults living in Great Britain between 5th and 9th July 2018. Interviews were conducted using the Kantar TNS Research Express Online Omnibus, which uses the Lightspeed access panel as its sample source.

The data was weighted to match population totals for age, gender, working status, 2017 General Election voting patterns, 2016 EU referendum voting patterns, education, region, and likelihood to vote in the next General Election.

Since our last poll a change has been made to the voting intention questions - UKIP and the Green party are now shown to respondents on a second screen.

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